Match Overview

The 3rd round match of the 2025/26 group stage between Athletic (Spain) and Qarabag (Azerbaijan) will take place on October 22 at San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao. This preview includes a prediction, betting odds, and statistics for the Athletic vs Qarabag encounter.

Athletic Bilbao’s Performance Analysis

Ernesto Valverde’s squad has suffered defeats in their first two matches, losing to Arsenal (0:2) and Borussia Dortmund (1:4). This extends the team’s European losing streak to 4 games, a first in their history. During this period, the Basque side has conceded 13 goals. However, the Spanish team also consistently finds the net, having scored in 21 of their previous 22 international fixtures. In the overall tournament standings, Athletic occupies the 34th position and is among the bottom five in terms of offensive efficiency.

Key Home Statistics for Athletic Bilbao

• At home, the team has won 6 of their last 8 European matches (2 losses).
• The Spaniards opened the scoring in 5 of their previous 7 home matches on the international stage.
• On their home turf, Athletic has conceded no more than one goal in 6 of their last 8 European fixtures.

Athletic Bilbao’s Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Unai Simón – Yuri Berchiche, Daniel Vivian, Aymeric Laporte, Jesús Areso – Unai Gómez, Mikel Jauregizar, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Robert Navarro, Gorka Guruzeta, Iñaki Williams.

Team News for Athletic Bilbao

Midfielder Beñat Prados will miss the match due to injury.

Qarabag’s Impressive Run

The Azerbaijani side is currently undefeated, having beaten Benfica (3:2) away and then securing a home victory against Copenhagen (2:0). Notably, Gurban Gurbanov’s team kept a clean sheet for the first time in their last 5 Champions League matches. Despite varying defensive statistics, Qarabag has been performing exceptionally well, winning 7 of their previous 8 matches in this tournament (1 loss). Furthermore, in 5 of these matches, the Agdam club scored at least two goals. In the tournament standings, Qarabag is positioned 6th.

Qarabag’s Key Performance Indicators

• At least one goal was scored in both halves in Qarabag’s last 5 Champions League games.
• The team has not drawn in their last 13 away matches in this tournament (8 wins, 5 losses).
• At least three goals were scored in 5 of the club’s last 6 away games in the Champions League.

Qarabag’s Predicted Lineup (4-5-1)

Matheus Koczalski – Behruz Mustafazadeh, Kevin Medina, Matheus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicallho, Emmanuel Addai – Camilo Durán. 

Referee Assignment

Igor Pajac (Croatia)

Referee Statistics

Matches – 5 (International meetings, 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 17;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 23;

Penalties awarded – 20%.

Match Prediction: Athletic vs Qarabag

The Azerbaijani side was considered an underdog even in their home match against Copenhagen. However, Gurban Gurbanov’s charges defied expectations, securing their second consecutive victory in the group stage. Bookmakers continue to underestimate Qarabag, offering attractive odds even for a single goal from the team. Meanwhile, the club boasts an 8-match scoring streak in the Champions League, finding the net at least twice in 6 of those encounters.

Conversely, the Basques have not shown reliable defensive play. In the current Champions League campaign, the team has already conceded 6 goals, and at home, Athletic has failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 international fixtures. Overall, this season, the Spaniards have managed only two clean sheets in 12 official matches. It remains unclear how Ernesto Valverde’s men, with such defensive vulnerabilities, intend to contain the attack of their upcoming opponent.

My Betting Tip

My prediction: “Qarabag Total Goals Over 0.5” with odds of 1.83