Match Overview

This highly anticipated 2025/26 group stage fixture sees German side Bayer host French giants Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) on October 21st at their home ground, the BayArena in Leverkusen. This comprehensive preview delves into the match’s predictions, betting insights, and key statistics.

Bayer’s Form and Analysis

Having changed their manager early in the season, Bayer, now under the guidance of Kasper Hjulmand, have had a somewhat underwhelming start to their Champions League campaign, securing two draws. While their opponents, Copenhagen and PSV, weren’t considered top-tier contenders, these results leave Bayer without a win and with only 2 points, placing them 25th in the overall group standings, outside the qualification zone for the knockout stages. Their winless streak in the Champions League now extends to four matches (2 draws, 2 losses). However, it’s worth noting their home form in this competition has been more robust, with the German side losing only one of their last seven European fixtures at the BayArena.

Key Bayer Statistics

• Bayer has struggled offensively in the Champions League, failing to score more than one goal in 8 of their last 11 outings.
• They have shown resilience, however, covering a (+1.5) handicap in six of their previous eight tournament encounters.
• Defensively, the German squad has been vulnerable, conceding goals in five of their last six Champions League fixtures.

Bayer’s Predicted Starting XI (3-4-3)

Mark Flekken – Loïc Badé, Robert Andrich, Edmond Tapsoba – Arthur, Alex Grimaldo, Ignacio Fernández, Aleix García – Elies Ben Seghir, Kristian Kofana, Ernest Poku.

Bayer Team News and Injuries

Significant injury concerns plague the Bayer squad. Defender Axel Tap and midfielders Malik Tillman and Exequiel Palacios are confirmed absentees. There are also doubts surrounding the availability of defender Jarell Quansah, midfielders Lucas Vázquez and Nathan Tella, and striker Patrik Schick.

Paris Saint-Germain’s Form and Analysis

As reigning champions, Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) has navigated the opening two rounds of the Champions League with the expected dominance. They began by decisively defeating Atalanta, then, despite facing significant squad limitations, clinched a hard-fought comeback victory away against Barcelona. These impressive performances mean Luis Enrique’s men are among only six teams in the current Champions League campaign to maintain a perfect record. Overall, the French giants have won five consecutive matches in this tournament, extending their scoring streak to eight games.

Key PSG Statistics

• PSG has demonstrated consistent attacking prowess on the road, scoring in seven consecutive Champions League away fixtures.
• Their recent form in the competition is highly competitive, with a 16-match streak of decisive results (12 wins, 4 losses, no draws).
• The Parisians boast an excellent away record in the Champions League, securing victory in six of their last seven matches played on foreign soil.

PSG’s Predicted Starting XI (4-3-3)

Lucas Chevalier – Willian Pacho, Illia Zabarnyi, Nuno Mendes, Achraf Hakimi – Vitinha, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Lee Kang-in – Bradley Barcola, Désiré Doué, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.

PSG Team News and Injuries

PSG is also managing some injury concerns. Midfielders Fabián Ruiz and João Neves are currently rehabilitating. Additionally, there’s uncertainty regarding the availability of key defender Marquinhos and forward Ousmane Dembélé for this match.

Match Official: Jesús Gil

The match will be officiated by Spanish referee Jesús Gil. His recent statistics from 13 international matches across the 2024/25–2025/26 seasons show a tendency for a structured game:

• Total Yellow Cards (including second yellows): 56
• Average Yellow Cards per Match: 4.3
• Red Cards Shown: 2
• Average Fouls per Match: 24
• Penalties Awarded: 38% of matches

Match Prediction: Under 3.5 Goals

While both teams are capable of exciting football, their Champions League encounters don’t always translate into a goal-fest. Historically, Bayer’s matches in this European competition rarely exceed three goals, with this ceiling observed in six of their last seven outings. More specifically, when playing at home, three or fewer goals were scored in 11 of their last 12 Champions League fixtures. An even tighter trend shows that six of their last seven home games in this tournament featured a maximum of two goals.

PSG’s games are generally more high-scoring, but their away performances tend to be less prolific than their home matches. Only two of their last ten Champions League away games have seen four or more goals. The entertainment value of this particular match could also be impacted by the absence of several key players for PSG, some of whom have already contributed goals in the Champions League this season. Notably, Bayer faces similar squad availability issues.

Considering these factors, our prediction for this match is Total Goals Under 3.5. This outcome is currently offered at a coefficient of 1.56.