Match Kick-off Information

The first matchday of the 2025/26 group stage will see “Benfica” from Portugal face “Qarabag” from Azerbaijan. This encounter is set for September 16th at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon. Explore our in-depth analysis, betting prediction, odds, and statistics for the “Benfica” – “Qarabag” fixture.

Benfica Team Overview

The Portuguese side, having finished second in their domestic league last season, commenced their Champions League campaign in the 3rd qualifying round. Under the management of Bruno Lage, the team successfully overcame Nice (2:0, 2:0) and Fenerbahçe (0:0, 1:0). This achievement secures their fifth consecutive participation in the main phase of this prestigious tournament. Over this period, Benfica has twice reached the quarter-finals, and in the previous season, their journey concluded in the Round of 16. It’s worth noting that the Portuguese club has avoided defeat in 7 of their last 9 Champions League matches, recording 5 victories and 2 draws.

Benfica Key Performance Indicators

• Benfica opened the scoring in 7 of their last 10 Champions League games.
• At their home stadium in this competition, Benfica has failed to win in 5 of their last 7 matches (2 draws, 3 losses).
• In 5 of their last 7 previous home Champions League fixtures, the Portuguese team scored no more than two goals.

Benfica Provisional Starting XI (4-3-3)

Anatoliy Trubin – António Silva, Samuel Dahl, Nicolás Otamendi, Tomás Araújo – Richard Ríos, Enzo Barrenechea, Florentino – Fredrik Aursnes, Evangelos Pavlidis, Kerem Aktürkoğlu.

Benfica Injury Update

Defenders Amar Dedic, Alexander Bah, midfielder Manu Silva, and forwards Dodi Lukebakio, Bruma are currently nursing injuries.

Qarabag Team Overview

Qarabag has clinched the Azerbaijani championship for four consecutive seasons, but this marks their inaugural entry into the main Champions League group stage. Remarkably, it’s only the second time in their history that the club has reached the group phase of a major European competition. In the current edition of the tournament, Gurban Gurbanov’s squad navigated through Shelbourne (3:0, 1:0), Shkëndija (1:0, 5:1), and Ferencváros (3:1, 2:3). Their previous European campaign saw the Agdam club compete in the Europa League, where they finished in a disappointing 36th place overall. It’s important to highlight that Qarabag has not played a draw in their last 12 Champions League matches, securing 8 wins and suffering 4 defeats.

Qarabag Key Performance Indicators

• The team boasts a scoring run of 6 consecutive matches in the Champions League.
• At least three goals were scored in 5 of Qarabag’s last 7 away matches in this tournament.
• On the road in the Champions League, the club has triumphed in 5 of its last 6 encounters (1 loss).

Qarabag Provisional Starting XI (4-5-1)

Mateusz Kochalski – Bahlul Mustafazada, Kevin Medina, Matheus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicálio, Marko Janković – Nariman Akhundzada.

Match Referee Details

Referee: Erik Lambrechts (Belgium)

Refereeing Statistics

Matches officiated: 12 (International fixtures, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows): 41;

Average yellow cards per match: 3.4;

Red cards shown: 1;

Average fouls per match: 22;

Penalties awarded: 25%.

Benfica – Qarabag Match Forecast

Qarabag’s Step Up in Competition

The Azerbaijani champions demonstrated excellent results in the qualifying rounds, but the quality of their opponents at that stage should be taken into consideration. Against stronger teams, Qarabag is likely to encounter significantly greater challenges. This trend was visible in their previous Europa League campaign, where Gurban Gurbanov’s side suffered 7 defeats in the group stage, with four of those being heavy losses. Interestingly, the club even conceded a goal in the single match they managed to win.

Benfica’s Attacking Approach vs Defensive Lapses

In the preceding Champions League season, the Portuguese squad delivered several vibrant and high-scoring matches. When facing a technically inferior opponent, Bruno Lage’s team is expected to maintain an attacking style of play. However, Benfica’s defense has shown a lack of consistency, allowing 12 goals in their last 7 home Champions League games. Qarabag could potentially exploit this defensive vulnerability, especially given their record of scoring in 10 of their last 11 away fixtures in this competition.

Recommended Betting Pick

The home team is anticipated to secure all three points in what promises to be a goal-filled encounter. My prediction is: “Benfica Win and Total Goals Over 2.5”.