Match Overview and Betting Preview

The third-round match of the 2025/26 group stage between Chelsea (England) and Ajax (Netherlands) is scheduled for October 22nd at Stamford Bridge in London. This prediction covers the Chelsea vs Ajax encounter, including betting odds, key statistics, and expert analysis.

Chelsea’s Current Form and Campaign

Chelsea’s initial Champions League fixture proved challenging. In mid-September, the London club suffered a defeat to Bayern Munich, marking their third consecutive loss in this prestigious European competition. However, two weeks later, Chelsea managed to break this undesirable streak with a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Benfica. This was the fourth consecutive Champions League match where the English side failed to score more than one goal. Nevertheless, that solitary goal was sufficient for Enzo Maresca’s squad to ascend to 18th position in the tournament’s overall standings.

Chelsea: Key Statistics

• Chelsea has remained undefeated in 5 of their last 6 home Champions League matches, securing 4 victories and 1 draw.
• At least one team has failed to score in 11 of Chelsea’s previous 14 home games in this tournament.
• The club’s home uncompromising run in the Champions League extends to 5 fixtures, comprising 4 wins and 1 defeat.

Chelsea’s Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Robert Sanchez – Malo Gusto, Trevoh Chalobah, Jorrel Hato, Marc Cucurella – Reece James, Moises Caicedo – Pedro Neto, Facundo Buonanotte, Alejandro Garnacho – Tyrique George.

Chelsea: Team News and Absentees

Forward Joao Pedro is serving a suspension. Due to injuries, defenders Benoit Badiashile, Wesley Fofana, Levi Colwill, midfielder Cole Palmer, and forward Liam Delap are unavailable for this match. The participation of midfielder Enzo Fernandez remains questionable.

Ajax’s Champions League Struggles

John Heitinga’s team is part of a small group of clubs that have yet to earn a single point in the current Champions League season. Ajax has lost to both Inter and Marseille, failing to score even once. Apart from the Amsterdam giants, only Olympiacos has not found the back of the net in this European competition so far. Moreover, the club has conceded a total of 6 goals, with only Kairat having a worse defensive record (9). Their penultimate position in the overall standings appears entirely justified. Overall, Ajax has suffered 6 defeats in their last 7 Champions League matches.

Ajax: Key Statistics

• A minimum of 2 goals has been scored in Ajax’s last 8 Champions League encounters.
• The team’s uncompromising streak in this tournament spans 9 games (2 victories, 7 defeats).
• Both teams have scored in 7 of Ajax’s previous 8 away Champions League matches.

Ajax’s Probable Lineup (4-3-3)

Vitezslav Jaros – Anton Gaaei, Ko Itakura, Youri Baas, Lucas Rosa – Davy Klaassen, Kenneth Taylor, Oscar Gloukh – Oliver Edvartsen, Mika Godts, Wout Weghorst.

Ajax: Team News and Absentees

Defender Owen Wijndal, midfielder Branco van den Boomen, and forward Kasper Dolberg are all sidelined due to injuries. The availability of forwards Steven Berghuis and Don-Angelo Konadu for the match is uncertain.

Referee Analysis

Felix Zwayer (Germany)

Matches officiated – 20 (International matches, 2024/25 – 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 98;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.9;

Red cards shown – 9;

Average fouls per match – 21;

Penalties awarded – 35%.

Chelsea vs Ajax Match Prediction

Many spectators anticipate a confident victory for Chelsea, yet it’s not guaranteed that Enzo Maresca’s squad will enjoy an entirely trouble-free game. The English team has, in fact, won only 2 of their last 6 Champions League matches, and in both successful outings, they overcame their opponents by a margin of one or two goals. The club has not recorded a large-margin victory in the Champions League for 9 consecutive games, scoring a maximum of two goals in all these encounters. Even when considering only home matches, Chelsea has beaten an opponent by three or more goals in just 1 of their last 8 European fixtures.

Ajax faltered significantly in their recent Champions League match against Marseille, but such comprehensive defeats are not a frequent occurrence for them. Over their previous 52 games in this competition, the club has suffered only 3 heavy losses, and even defeats by a two-goal margin have been relatively uncommon for the Amsterdam side. Before their recent encounter with Marseille, Ajax had consistently avoided heavy defeats in 25 away Champions League matches.

Our Betting Tip

Based on the facts presented, the prediction is – “Ajax with a (+2.5) handicap” at odds of 1.48