Universidad Catolica Quito — Alianza Lima : Match Preview and Prediction for August 21,2025

Home Advantage: The Altitude Factor

The Ecuadorian side finds itself in a challenging position. A 0-2 deficit from the first leg leaves them with no alternative but to launch a full-scale offensive, applying relentless pressure from the opening whistle to the very end. Fortunately, they possess all the necessary elements to execute this strategy successfully. Their primary advantage lies in the high altitude of their home stadium, Olimpico Atahualpa, situated nearly 3000 meters above sea level, which will undoubtedly pose a significant test for the Peruvian visitors.

Home Fortress: Unbeaten Record

Examining their performance in the current Copa Sudamericana campaign, Universidad Catolica transforms into a formidable force when playing at home. They boast a perfect record of three wins from three matches. They emphatically dispatched ‘Cerro Largo’ (3-1) and ‘Defensa y Justicia’ (3-1), and secured a narrow victory over ‘Vitoria’ (1-0). This consistent success is not mere coincidence; it reflects a well-established system. The team has consistently demonstrated its ability to leverage its home field advantage to devastating effect.

Offensive Prowess and Recent Form

Admittedly, their recent Ecuadorian league fixture against ‘Atletico Libertad’ ended in a 1-1 draw. However, the statistics paint a clear picture: 64% possession, 15 shots on goal, and an Expected Goals (xG) metric of 1.99. The Ecuadorians were in complete control of the game, only lacking clinical finishing. Prior to that, they delivered a crushing 6-2 defeat to ‘Deportivo Aucas’. Their offensive potential is immense, especially on their home turf. Coach Diego Romero is unlikely to deviate from a direct, attacking approach, as there is simply no other viable path forward given the aggregate score.

Alianza Lima’s Injury Woes

The Peruvian club arrives in Quito with a comfortable aggregate lead, but simultaneously grappling with severe squad deficiencies. ‘Alianza’s’ losses are not merely rotational; they represent critical blows to key positions. Legendary forward Paolo Guerrero will be sidelined for the return leg, having sustained an injury in the first encounter, which significantly diminishes their attacking potency.

Key Absences: Noriega and Lavandeira

However, the most critical setback is the absence of Erik Noriega. This player was a foundational component of the team, evidenced by his recent, substantial transfer to Brazilian club ‘Grêmio’. Losing such an influential player before a crucial second leg is catastrophic for their midfield and defensive structure. Furthermore, the continued absence of the injured Pablo Lavandeira paints an even bleaker picture for the visitors.

Defensive Concerns and First Leg Analysis

While defender Carlos Zambrano returns to the squad after serving a suspension, his presence alone will be insufficient to plug all the gaps created by the simultaneous absence of several key leaders. In the first leg, ‘Alianza’ only managed to secure their advantage late in the game, scoring in the 76th and 87th minutes. The match was evenly contested, with ‘Catolica’ registering 17 shots, indicating that even away from home, the Ecuadorians posed significant threats.