Match Preview: Kairat vs Pafos

The third-round match of the 2025/26 group stage between Kazakhstan’s Kairat and Cyprus’s Pafos is scheduled for October 21 at the Central Stadium in Almaty. This detailed preview covers the forecast, betting odds, and statistical insights for the Kairat vs Pafos encounter.

Kairat Team Analysis

The start of the Champions League group stage has proven challenging for Rafael Urazbakhtin’s side. Following a disappointing 1-4 away loss to Sporting, the team suffered a significant 0-5 defeat at home against Real Madrid. This result mirrored Kairat’s largest ever Champions League loss. After two matchdays, the Kazakhstani club has conceded 9 goals, marking the worst defensive record in the tournament. Furthermore, Kairat has only managed to score in one of their last five Champions League matches. They currently sit at the bottom of the table, alongside three other teams yet to secure any points.

Kairat’s Recent Form & Statistics

• Kairat has been unable to secure a victory in their last 5 Champions League matches (2 draws, 3 losses).
• At home, Kairat has conceded no more than one goal in 6 of their last 7 Champions League fixtures.
• The club has opened the scoring in 5 of their last 7 home games in this competition.

Kairat’s Probable Starting Lineup (4-3-3)

Temirlan Anarbekov – Alexandr Martynovich, Egor Sorokin, Alexander Mrynsky, Erkin Tapalov – Valeriy Gromyko, Ofri Arad, Luis Mata – Damir Kasabulat, Jorginho Costa, Dastan Satpayev.

Kairat Team News

Goalkeeper Alexander Zarutskiy is currently injured and unavailable.

Pafos Team Analysis

The Cypriot side, Pafos, displayed a very similar outcome in the previous round, succumbing to Bayern Munich with a 1-5 scoreline on their home turf. This defeat marked the first in the Champions League for Juan Carlos Carcedo’s team (previously 4 wins, 3 draws). Interestingly, prior to the match against the Bavarians, Pafos had not conceded more than one goal in any Champions League fixture. Moreover, they boast an impressive record of four clean sheets in this tournament. With just one point accumulated, the islanders currently occupy the 32nd position in the league standings.

Pafos’ Recent Form & Statistics

• No more than two goals were scored in 5 of the team’s last 7 Champions League matches.
• The Cypriots have found the back of the net in 7 of their 8 European matches.
• Pafos remains undefeated away from home in the Champions League (3 wins, 1 draw).

Pafos’ Probable Starting Lineup (4-3-3)

Neophytos Michael – David Gomez Goldar, Derrick Luckassen, David Luis, Ognjen Mimović – Ivan Šunjić, Vlad Dragomir, Pepe Rodrigues – Mislav Oršić, Jajá, Landry Dimata.

Referee Profile

Chris Kavanagh (England)

Matches officiated – 7 (International fixtures, 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.9;

Red cards shown – 0;

Average fouls per match – 23;

Penalties awarded – 14%.

Kairat vs Pafos Match Prediction

In this upcoming fixture, the hosts, Kairat, have a genuine opportunity to secure points in the Champions League, or even make history as the first Kazakhstani club to win a match in the main round of this competition. Realistically, the Cypriot side, Pafos, is significantly less formidable than Kairat’s previous opponents. While Rafael Urazbakhtin’s men unequivocally lost to Real Madrid, they had previously maintained an impressive six-match unbeaten home streak in this European tournament (5 wins, 1 draw). It’s crucial to highlight that Kairat kept a clean sheet in five of those matches.

Pafos, however, failed their first real test against a top-tier opponent. Nevertheless, the Cypriots have already established themselves as a resilient and tough-to-beat team. I anticipate Juan Carlos Carcedo’s squad will put up a strong fight against the Kazakhstani side. Moreover, Pafos boasts an unbeaten away record in the Champions League (3 wins, 1 draw). It’s worth noting that Pafos has demonstrated solid defensive play this season; only the dominant Bayern Munich managed to score more than one goal against them.

In a clash between two teams known for their strong defenses, I lean towards the home side. My prediction is: “Kairat to Win or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals” with odds of 1.85