Match Preview

The highly anticipated 5th-round fixture between Olympique Marseille and Paris Saint-Germain is set to take place on September 21 at the iconic Stade Vélodrome. This comprehensive preview delves into the match details, team form, betting odds, and key statistics for this significant encounter.

Marseille’s Current Form

At the start of the current championship season, the Marseille side has displayed a noticeable lack of consistency. Impressive victories against teams from the lower half of the table have been interspersed with narrow defeats to clubs positioned within the top six. Last week, Roberto De Zerbi’s men secured a convincing win over Lorient, partially improving their standing to 7th place in . This victory extended Marseille’s formidable home winning streak in the league to six consecutive matches, with the team netting a minimum of three goals in each of these encounters. 

Marseille Key Statistics

• Both teams have found the net in 5 out of Marseille’s last 6 home games in .
• The club’s uncompromising run in this tournament spans 6 matches (4 wins, 2 losses, with no draws).
• Marseille has consistently covered a (+1.5) handicap in their previous 14 home matches in the championship.

Marseille’s Probable Lineup and Team News

Estimated Marseille Starting XI (4-2-3-1)*

Geoffrey De Lange – Amir Murillo, Benjamin Pavard, Nayef Aguerd, Facundo Medina – Angel Gomes, Geoffrey Kondogbia – Mason Greenwood, Bilal Nadir, Timothy Weah – Amine Gouiri. Defender C.J. Egan-Riley has completed his suspension and is available. However, fellow defender Nayef Aguerd might be sidelined for the game due to a concussion, pending further evaluation.

Paris Saint-Germain’s Dominance

The Parisian giants remain the sole team yet to drop a single point in the current campaign, showcasing their absolute dominance. In their most recent league outing, the club comfortably defeated Lens 2-0, securing their sixth consecutive championship victory and solidifying their position as the undisputed league leaders. Luis Enrique’s side has now maintained an impressive scoring streak in for 24 consecutive matches. Furthermore, PSG has conceded only three goals in the current season, a defensive record that places them jointly first among all clubs. 

PSG Key Statistics

• PSG has avoided defeat in 42 of their last 43 away matches in the championship (comprising 33 wins and 9 draws).
• Both teams have managed to score in 12 of the club’s previous 16 games.
• The Parisians have scored at least one goal in each of their last 12 away fixtures in this tournament.

PSG’s Probable Lineup and Team News

Estimated PSG Starting XI (4-3-3)*

Lucas Chevalier – Achraf Hakimi, Illia Zabarnyi, Lucas Beraldo, Lucas Hernandez – Lee Kang-In, Vitinha, Warren Zaire-Emery – Bradley Barcola, Gonçalo Ramos, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Unfortunately, key forwards Ousmane Dembélé and Désiré Doué are currently unavailable for selection due to injuries.

Referee Analysis

Jérôme Brisard (France)

Matches officiated – 20 (across , 2024/25–2025/26 seasons);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 79;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.9;

Red cards shown – 7;

Average fouls per match – 24;

Penalties awarded – 40%.

Marseille vs PSG Match Prediction

Marseille has secured victories in both of their home matches in the current season, notably scoring a combined nine goals and showcasing their attacking prowess. Their impressive winning streak on home turf in the championship now stands at six consecutive games. However, in the highly charged derby clashes against PSG, the familiar atmosphere of the Stade Vélodrome has historically offered little advantage to the home side for many years. Marseille has been unable to defeat their fierce rivals in their last 12 home encounters in ; a staggering nine of these 12 games resulted in defeats, and the club has failed to even score in their last six home matches against PSG, highlighting a significant historical disadvantage. PSG, conversely, has maintained a flawless record in the current championship season, demonstrating their consistent high performance. It is worth highlighting that the team has won 10 of their last 12 away matches in , with at least three goals being scored in nine of these 12 games, indicating both winning capability and attacking strength. Revisiting their head-to-head records, including home fixtures, no less than three goals were scored in five of the last seven matches, and PSG emerged victorious in every single one of these seven encounters, cementing their superiority in this fixture. While Marseille will benefit from an extra day of rest following their Champions League debut, the club traveled to Spain for their fixture, whereas the Parisians played at home. Therefore, both teams are considered to be in roughly equal physical condition, negating any significant fatigue advantage. In all other tactical and form aspects, the visitors from Paris hold a distinct advantage. Our main prediction is a “PSG Win and Over 2.5 Goals” with competitive odds of 2.44. * The starting lineup for each team is based on their previous match in this tournament.