Match Preview

This 2025/26 group stage matchday 3 fixture pits PSV (Netherlands) against Napoli (Italy) on October 21st at the Philips Stadium in Eindhoven. This comprehensive preview offers a prediction, betting odds, and key statistics for the PSV vs Napoli clash.

PSV Overview

PSV, under Peter Bosz, began their Champions League group stage campaign with a home defeat to newcomers Union Saint-Gilloise of Belgium (1-3). However, they partially redeemed themselves in the second round by sharing points with Bayer Leverkusen on their home turf (1-1). Despite this, the club has failed to win in 5 of their last 6 Champions League matches (2 draws, 3 losses) and has not kept a clean sheet in ten consecutive appearances. With just one point, the team currently sits in 27th place in the standings. It’s also worth noting that PSV has a strong home record against Italian clubs in European competitions, having remained undefeated in 9 of their last 12 such matches (7 wins, 2 draws).

Key PSV Statistics

• The club has avoided defeat in 11 of their last 13 home Champions League matches (7 wins, 4 draws).
• At least four goals have been scored in 5 of the team’s last 6 home matches in this European competition.
• PSV has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 8 of their last 11 home Champions League fixtures.

PSV’s Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Matej Kovar – Anass Salah-Eddine, Ryan Flamingo, Jarek Gasiorowski, Mauro Júnior – Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ismael Saibari – Ivan Perisic, Guus Til, Kauhaib Driouech.

PSV Injury Report

Defenders Wessel Kooy, Sergino Dest, and Kiliann Sildillia, along with forwards Myron Boadu, Ricardo Pepi, and Ruben van Bommel, are all sidelined due to injuries.

Napoli Overview

Under Antonio Conte, Napoli secured their first victory in the current Champions League campaign in the previous round, defeating Sporting 2-1 at home. This marks only their second win in the last seven Champions League matches (2 draws, 3 losses). Furthermore, the Neapolitans have failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their last 12 matches in this tournament. With three points, the team currently occupies 19th place in the standings.

Key Napoli Statistics

• The club’s away record in the Champions League is uncompromising, with 11 matches resulting in 5 wins and 6 losses.
• The team has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 away European matches.
• Napoli has conceded in 7 of their last 9 away Champions League fixtures.

Napoli’s Predicted Lineup (4-5-1)

Alex Meret – Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Juan Jesus, Sam Bekkema, Leonardo Spinazzola – Billy Gilmour, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Scott McTominay, Kevin De Bruyne, David Neres – Rasmus Højlund.

Napoli Injury Report

Defender Amir Rrahmani, midfielder Stanislav Lobotka, and forward Romelu Lukaku will miss the match due to injuries.

Referee Analysis

Daniel Siebert (Switzerland)

Referee Statistics

Matches officiated – 15 (International matches, 2024/25-2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 74;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.9;

Red cards shown – 6;

Average fouls per match – 23;

Penalties awarded – 13%.

PSV vs Napoli Match Prediction

At home, the Dutch side typically plays an active attacking style, regardless of the opponent’s caliber. Thanks to their open play, PSV consistently finds the net: in their last 13 home Champions League matches, they have never failed to score. Moreover, in seven of these encounters, the team has scored at least two goals. However, PSV’s defense is not particularly solid: in 13 of their last 15 home matches in this European competition, the Dutch side failed to keep a clean sheet, conceding 10 goals in their last two home Champions League games alone.

The Neapolitans are also not accustomed to sitting back, dedicating significant effort to attacking play. In their last 13 away Champions League fixtures, Napoli failed to score in only three matches, and in six of these, they put at least two goals past their opponents. At the same time, the Italian side often suffers from defensive errors: over the same period, Napoli kept just three clean sheets, and in their last three away Champions League matches, they conceded a total of nine goals.

Expert Betting Tip

I believe this will be a high-scoring encounter, so my prediction is: “Total over 2.5 goals” with odds of 1.64