Match Overview

The opening match of the 2025/26 group stage will feature Real Madrid (Spain) and Marseille (France) on September 16, hosted at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu stadium. This preview covers the Real Madrid vs Marseille fixture, including our prediction, betting odds, and key statistics.

Real Madrid Overview

Real Madrid has an impeccable record this century, never missing the main stage of the . In the current season, they enter the competition as the runner-up of the Spanish La Liga. Notably, the club has clinched this prestigious trophy twice in just over the last three years. In the previous campaign, Real finished 11th in the overall stage with 5 wins and 3 losses. They subsequently advanced past Manchester City and local rivals Atlético Madrid, but their journey was cut short in the quarter-finals by Arsenal (losing 1:2 and 0:3).

Key Statistics for Real Madrid

• The team’s uncompromising streak in regular time in this tournament spans 16 matches (10 wins and 6 losses).
• At least three goals were scored in 90 minutes in 8 of Real’s last 9 matches.
• Two or more goals were scored in the second half in 8 of the Spaniards’ last 10 encounters in this European competition.

Real Madrid Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)

Thibaut Courtois – Álvaro Carreras, Dean Huijsen, Éder Militão, Trent Alexander-Arnold – Federico Valverde, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Arda Güler, Franco Mastantuono – Kylian Mbappé, Vinicius Júnior.

Team News: Real Madrid Injuries

For this match, Real Madrid will be without forward Endrick Felipe, defenders Antonio Rüdiger and Ferland Mendy, as well as midfielders Eduardo Camavinga and Jude Bellingham, all sidelined due to injuries.

Marseille Overview

Roberto De Zerbi’s side secured their spot in the group stage by finishing 2nd in Ligue 1. This marks the club’s fourth appearance in this European competition over the last five years, though they have only reached the group stage twice and have never progressed further. Last year, the French team did not participate in European competitions. However, in the season prior, after starting in the 3rd qualifying round, they ultimately advanced to the Europa League autumn stage, reaching the semi-finals. An interesting statistic to note is Marseille’s 26-match uncompromising streak in the (6 wins and 20 losses).

Key Statistics for Marseille

• Exactly two or three goals were scored in regular time in 10 of Marseille’s last 13 matches in this European competition.
• The French team lost in regular time in 11 of their last 12 away matches in the .
• The team conceded at least two goals in regular time in 10 of their last 13 away fixtures in this tournament.

Marseille Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Gerónimo Rulli – Amir Murillo, Benjamin Pavard, Nayef Aguerd, Facundo Medina – Ángel Gomes, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg – Mason Greenwood, Bilal Nadir, Amad Traoré – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

Referee Profile

Irfan Peljto (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Matches officiated – 18 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 65;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;

Red cards shown – 5;

Average fouls per match – 21;

Penalties awarded – 50%.

Match Prediction: Real Madrid vs Marseille

The is anticipated in Madrid with the same fervor as the Spanish ‘El Clásico’. Last season, Real Madrid’s journey ended in the quarter-finals, which is almost considered a failure for a club of their stature. Carlo Ancelotti would certainly agree with this assessment. Now, under the leadership of Xabi Alonso, the Madrilenians are poised to compete for the title of Europe’s strongest team.

Form and Head-to-Head Analysis

Under their new head coach, Real has maintained a perfect record in the new season, securing 4 victories in La Liga. Furthermore, the Spanish giants are exceptionally strong on home turf, having won 15 of their last 20 matches at home in regular time. In contrast, the French side cannot boast consistent participation in this European competition, and their overall performance in the has been rather disappointing, particularly in away fixtures, where Marseille has lost 11 of their last 12 matches.

Betting Tip Justification

I anticipate the hosts will secure a comfortable victory. Marseille consistently concedes a high number of goals when playing away in the , often failing to score themselves, as seen in 6 of their previous 8 away encounters. Considering Real Madrid’s formidable attacking prowess, focusing on an Asian Handicap for the Spanish team seems a judicious approach.

Final Prediction

Therefore, my final prediction for this match is: Real Madrid with a handicap of (-1.5).

Author: Oleksandr Oleksenko