Match Overview

This third-round fixture of the 2025/26 group stage will see Sporting CP (Portugal) face Olympique Marseille (France) on October 22 at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon. This preview offers an in-depth match prediction, betting tips, and key statistics for the Sporting CP vs. Marseille encounter.

Sporting CP Analysis

Sporting CP’s Champions League Journey

Sporting CP has experienced a mixed start to their Champions League campaign. They began strongly with a significant victory over Kairat but then faced a challenging away fixture against Napoli, where they narrowly lost 1:2. With 3 points accumulated so far, the club currently sits in 14th place in the overall standings. A concerning trend for Sporting is their struggle to score more than one goal in 7 of their last 8 Champions League matches, with only one win recorded during this period.

Sporting CP Key Statistics

• The club has conceded goals in 5 consecutive home Champions League matches.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of Sporting’s last 9 matches in this competition.
• The Portuguese side has covered a +1.5 handicap in 6 of their last 7 Champions League fixtures.

Sporting CP’s Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Rui Silva – Iván Fresneda, Eduardo Quaresma, Ousmane Diomande, Maximiliano Araújo – Morten Hjulmand, Hidemasa Morita – Pedro Gonçalves, Geovany Kenda, Francisco Trincão – Luis Suárez.

Team News: Sporting CP

Midfielder Daniel Bragança and forward Nuno Santos are currently recovering from injuries.

Olympique Marseille Analysis

Olympique Marseille’s Campaign So Far

Olympique Marseille’s Champions League performance in previous matches mirrors that of Sporting CP. Initially, Marseille suffered a disheartening defeat against Real Madrid but then convincingly beat Ajax with a significant goal difference. The recent clean sheet against Ajax was their first in 6 Champions League games. Roberto De Zerbi’s side also has 3 points but holds a 12th position in the league table due to a superior goal difference.

Olympique Marseille Key Statistics

• Marseille’s all-or-nothing streak in the Champions League extends to 28 matches (7 wins, 21 losses), with no draws.
• At least one team failed to score in 7 of the French side’s last 9 away matches in this European competition.
• The club has conceded goals in 13 of its last 14 away Champions League fixtures.

Olympique Marseille’s Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Gerónimo Rulli – Benjamin Pavard, Nayef Aguerd, Leonardo Balerdi, Emerson Palmieri – Matt O’Riley, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg – Mason Greenwood, Angel Gomes, Igor Paixão – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

Team News: Olympique Marseille

Key defender Facundo Medina is unavailable due to injury. The participation of midfielders Geoffrey Kondogbia and Amad Traoré, as well as forward Amine Gouiri, remains uncertain.

Match Official

Referee Profile

Rade Obrenović (Slovenia)

Referee Statistics

Matches officiated – 7 (International fixtures, 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellow) – 36;

Average yellow cards per match – 5.1;

Red cards shown – 0;

Average fouls per match – 26;

Penalties awarded – 0%.

Sporting CP vs. Olympique Marseille Match Prediction

Betting Analysis & Team Form

After the initial two rounds of the Champions League, both teams have secured one win and suffered one loss, and this isn’t their only shared characteristic. Both of their matches so far have been high-scoring affairs. For Sporting CP, at least two goals have been scored in 17 of their last 18 Champions League outings. This trend of high-scoring games is also consistent in 15 of their home matches in this European competition. Notably, in their last 6 Champions League home fixtures, Sporting CP has only registered two defeats, which came against strong opponents like Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund.

Marseille’s Away Form and Goal Stats

Marseille has not drawn a Champions League match in a long time, and their overall record appears bleak: 20 of their last 25 matches in the competition have resulted in a defeat. Significantly, four of their rare five victories occurred on home turf. Away from home, the French side has only avoided defeat in 1 of their last 13 Champions League encounters. It’s also worth noting that at least two goals were scored in 11 of these 13 away games.

Final Verdict and Betting Tip

Our prediction is “1X (Sporting CP win or draw) and Total Goals Over 1.5”.