Match Overview

This third-round fixture of the UEFA 2025/26 group stage will see Union (Belgium) host Inter Milan (Italy) on October 21 at the Constant Vanden Stock Stadium in Brussels. This article offers a detailed prediction, statistical insights, and betting considerations for the encounter.

Union’s Journey

The Belgian side is making its debut in the main phase of the this season, having started strongly with an away victory against PSV (3:1). However, Union could not maintain this momentum, suffering a heavy 0:4 defeat at home to Newcastle in the second round. This loss marks their fourth in five recent matches, including qualifiers, with three of those fixtures seeing them concede at least three goals. Union currently sits in 20th place in the standings with three points.

Key Statistics for Union

• The team has failed to win in 7 of their last 9 home European matches (3 draws, 4 losses).
• Precisely 2 or 3 goals were scored in 9 of the club’s last 13 home European fixtures.
• The Belgian side has not scored more than once in 6 of their last 8 home games in European club tournaments.

Union’s Predicted Lineup (3-4-3)

Kjell Scherpen – Fedde Leysen, Kevin Mac Allister, Christian Burgess – Anan Khalaili, Adem Zorgane, Kamil Van Den Perre, Ousseynou Niang – Anouar Ait-El-Hadj, Raul Floruch, David Promis.

It’s worth noting that before this round, the club appointed a new head coach, David Hubert, replacing Sebastian Pocognoli.

Inter Milan’s Performance

Under Cristian Chivu, Inter comfortably defeated Slavia Prague (3:0) at home in the previous round. This means Inter has begun its current campaign with two clean sheet victories, accumulating ten clean sheets in regular time across the last two editions of this European competition. Furthermore, the team has scored at least two goals within 90 minutes in 9 of their last 10 matches. The Milanese club currently holds six points and is positioned fourth in the tournament table.

Key Statistics for Inter Milan

• The club has avoided defeat in 7 of their last 8 away matches (5 wins, 2 draws).
• The team has scored at least two goals in their last four away encounters in this European competition.
• Inter Milan has conceded no more than one goal in 7 of their last 8 away games.

Inter Milan’s Predicted Lineup (3-5-2)

Yann Sommer – Yann Bisseck, Francesco Acerbi, Alessandro Bastoni – Denzel Dumfries, Nicolo Barella, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Hakan Calhanoglu, Federico Dimarco – Lautaro Martinez, Ange-Yoan Bonny.

Forward Marcus Thuram will not feature due to injury.

Match Official

Glenn Nyberg (Switzerland)

Matches refereed – 15 (International fixtures, 2024/25-2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 53;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.5;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 23;

Penalties awarded – 20%.

Expert Prediction: Union vs Inter Milan

The Belgian team will undoubtedly be highly motivated after their disappointing home performance against Newcastle in the previous round. In my opinion, Union is capable of putting up significant resistance against the Milanese side, especially considering their generally successful record in European competitions at home. In their last 13 home matches on the European stage, the team has suffered only four defeats (5 wins, 4 draws), with one of those losses being by a minimal margin.

Inter’s away results have been somewhat inconsistent, and their victories often come after a tough battle. In their last 13 away fixtures, the Italians have won six matches (4 draws, 3 losses), but only in two of these did their advantage exceed a single goal. It’s also worth noting that in eight of these matches, Inter scored a maximum of one goal.

I anticipate a strong performance from the home side, and my prediction is: Union with a (+1) Handicap at odds of 1.62.